Mexico will open the 2026 World Cup against South Africa at the Azteca Stadium. Although El Tri is the favorite, its history in World Cup debuts and the growth of African soccer leave an open question: can Bafana Bafana pull off a big surprise?
Can Bafana Bafana surprise El Tri in the opening match of the 2026 World Cup?
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will begin with a clash full of expectations. On June 11, at the iconic Estadio Azteca, the Mexico national team will kick off the tournament against South Africa, a rival that on paper may seem manageable, but could also turn into a tricky challenge.
Mexico will play at home, backed by thousands of fans and under the pressure of starting the biggest World Cup in history on the right foot. Still, a question is already circulating among analysts and supporters: can South Africa pull off a surprise in the opening match?
Football history and Mexico’s record in World Cup openers suggest it may not be such a far-fetched possibility.
A rival arriving with confidence and belief
Even though Mexico enters as the favorite, South Africa is not coming in as an easy opponent. The team known as Bafana Bafana sees the opening match as a unique opportunity to set the tone for its tournament.
According to voices within South African football, the squad respects Mexico’s level but also believes it is a team they can compete against.
African football has grown significantly in recent decades. Teams from the continent are no longer seen as mere participants but as sides capable of challenging major football powers.
Many African players now compete in top European leagues, raising the level of national teams such as Senegal, Morocco and Nigeria. South Africa hopes to follow that path and prove it can also compete on the biggest stage.
Starting the tournament against a team carrying all the pressure to win could also work in their favor.
Even though Mexico enters as the favorite, South Africa is not coming in as an easy opponent. The team known as Bafana Bafana sees the opening match as a unique opportunity to set the tone for its tournament.
According to voices within South African football, the squad respects Mexico’s level but also believes it is a team they can compete against.
African football has grown significantly in recent decades. Teams from the continent are no longer seen as mere participants but as sides capable of challenging major football powers.
Many African players now compete in top European leagues, raising the level of national teams such as Senegal, Morocco and Nigeria. South Africa hopes to follow that path and prove it can also compete on the biggest stage.
Starting the tournament against a team carrying all the pressure to win could also work in their favor.
The pressure is on Mexico
If there is one thing that has historically complicated things for the Mexico national team at World Cups, it is the pressure of the opening match.
Throughout history, El Tri has taken part in five World Cup opening games, yet they have never managed to win one.
The record is concerning with two draws, three defeats, only two goals scored and 12 conceded.
That statistic turns the match against South Africa into a psychological challenge as well as a footballing one. Mexico will have to deal with the expectation of delivering a victory in front of its home crowd.
The team coached by Javier Aguirre also arrives with several issues still to be resolved ahead of the tournament. Injuries to key players, uncertainty in some positions and the final decision on the starting lineup remain open questions just months before kickoff.
If there is one thing that has historically complicated things for the Mexico national team at World Cups, it is the pressure of the opening match.
Throughout history, El Tri has taken part in five World Cup opening games, yet they have never managed to win one.
The record is concerning with two draws, three defeats, only two goals scored and 12 conceded.
That statistic turns the match against South Africa into a psychological challenge as well as a footballing one. Mexico will have to deal with the expectation of delivering a victory in front of its home crowd.
The team coached by Javier Aguirre also arrives with several issues still to be resolved ahead of the tournament. Injuries to key players, uncertainty in some positions and the final decision on the starting lineup remain open questions just months before kickoff.
African teams have already shown they can shock the world
World Cup history includes several moments when African teams produced memorable upsets.
One of the most iconic came in 2002, when Senegal defeated France, the reigning world champions, in the opening match of the tournament. That victory became one of the greatest surprises in World Cup history.
Such precedents feed the narrative that African teams can take advantage of high-pressure scenarios to strike first.
A victory for El Tri would allow them to gain early confidence and move closer to qualification for the knockout stage.
But if South Africa manages to pull off the upset, the impact would be immediate: not only would it put pressure on Mexico, it would also change the balance of the group.
World Cup history includes several moments when African teams produced memorable upsets.
One of the most iconic came in 2002, when Senegal defeated France, the reigning world champions, in the opening match of the tournament. That victory became one of the greatest surprises in World Cup history.
Such precedents feed the narrative that African teams can take advantage of high-pressure scenarios to strike first.
A victory for El Tri would allow them to gain early confidence and move closer to qualification for the knockout stage.
But if South Africa manages to pull off the upset, the impact would be immediate: not only would it put pressure on Mexico, it would also change the balance of the group.
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